Interactive · Bankroll & Variance

House edge tells you what should happen.
This shows you what actually happens.

Run hundreds of simulated sessions at your bankroll, bet size and house edge. See the real spread of outcomes — not just the long-run average.

More sessions = a more reliable spread, but the same math every time.
Sessions Ending in Profit
Sessions That Went Bust
Average Ending Bankroll
Median Ending Bankroll
Set your numbers and click  Run Simulation  to see how a real session plays out.
Individual sessions
Average across all sessions
Starting bankroll

Why This Matters

House Edge Is an Average. Your Session Is One Outcome.

The same 0.50% edge can produce wildly different nights. Here is why.

House edge is the long run

A 0.50% edge means the casino keeps 50 cents per $100 wagered — averaged over millions of hands. Your 200-hand session is nowhere near that sample size, which is exactly why the simulator shows some sessions up big and others busted, even at identical odds.

Variance is the noise around that average

Variance is how much any single session can swing away from the expected result. Games with the same house edge can still feel completely different to play depending on how spread out their possible outcomes are.

Risk of ruin is real

Even a low house edge doesn't protect a small bankroll from a bad run. The "Sessions That Went Bust" figure shows how often your exact bankroll and bet size run out of money before the session ends — a number pure house-edge figures never show you.

Bet size changes everything

Cutting your bet size doesn't change the house edge, but it stretches your bankroll across more hands and shrinks the size of each swing. Try halving the bet size and re-running to see the effect on the bust rate.

How this simulation works: each hand is modeled as an even-money bet, with the win probability set so the long-run result matches your selected house edge exactly (win probability = (1 − house edge) ÷ 2). This is a simplified model built for showing variance clearly — it does not reproduce the exact payout structure of every individual bet (for example, blackjack's 3:2 payouts or Beat the Dealer's non-even-money outcomes). For exact per-bet mathematics, see the full odds table or the individual game guides.